Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 20.457323 22.306997 24.360011 26.830692 29.755179 33.148425 37.447866
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 17.726736 20.154704 23.057937 26.868528 31.875368 38.451586 48.176925
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 15.968651 18.711674 22.178050 27.049823 34.042516 44.343508 62.239102
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.681311 17.601359 21.453121 27.176110 36.042228 50.584399 80.540645
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.575500 16.554550 20.613562 26.913400 37.307612 56.061898 101.908306
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.772668 15.807492 20.062431 26.933854 38.971150 62.906462 134.329480
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.036202 15.068901 19.417995 26.671436 40.037089 69.046778 175.650252
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.412877 14.429884 18.841529 26.411218 41.018271 75.533756 236.327549
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.883646 13.880857 18.340205 26.191717 42.012648 82.697669 334.886851
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.436034 13.416332 17.922060 26.050046 43.129654 91.051948 522.797853
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.954413 12.867762 17.321602 25.494862 43.199766 96.304636 793.860304
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.826411 12.843198 17.560196 26.527592 47.253298 119.753453 5868.302823
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.465026 12.442451 17.153532 26.281528 48.154884 132.186656 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.182874 12.149338 16.905954 26.323503 49.864659 151.647290 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.945731 11.912923 16.735763 26.500849 52.039392 178.872932 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.718839 11.679500 16.551708 26.623743 54.128278 212.333069 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.454111 11.371196 16.213217 26.370300 54.987472 239.992472 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.247429 11.146929 16.009316 26.390209 56.787371 287.229537 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.017900 10.874432 15.700349 26.136685 57.590394 329.836377 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.803809 10.618233 15.405874 25.885194 58.353426 381.697461 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.608260 10.384779 15.139915 25.673000 59.229497 450.445916 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.433921 10.179745 14.915216 25.536020 60.389783 551.929355 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.220840 9.901934 14.539886 24.999046 59.779765 598.852071 NaN